U.S.-Born DI Women's Golfers, state by state
The Big Three & 20 years of data
If you’re a junior girl from Florida, how likely are you to end up staying in-state for college golf? And how does that compare to a junior from Colorado or New York?
Let’s see what we can find from the roster-database that includes:
29,930 unique player-years since 2005
6,663 verified freshmen
Representation from all 50 U.S. states and more than 100 countries
THE BIG THREE
Just like on the men’s side, California, Texas, and Florida are the big three. On the men’s side, this trio of states accounted for just over 25% of U.S.-Born DI recruits across the 20 year period. For women’s golf, it’s very similar - just over 26%.
I think the drivers are mostly two-fold:
1) This trio of states have the most competitive golfers.
Strong junior tours, meaningful high school golf, year-round or near year-round weather, and a culture where golf has status.
2) There are lots of DI schools located in these states.
More schools in-state = more nearby roster spots, more chances to see college golf up close, and more natural relationships between junior and college coaches.
IN-STATE FRESHMEN
Across the entire women’s DI golf dataset, 44% of U.S.-born players enroll at a DI school in their home state.
Against that baseline, the Big Three behave very differently:
Texas is well above the line, at roughly 56% in-state.
California is basically on the average at ~45%.
Florida sits way below, at ~32%.
A Texas junior in this dataset is significantly more likely to stay home than a Florida junior.
What that suggests:
Texas looks like a “big ecosystem, strong anchor” state. There’s lots of talent, lots of schools, and a meaningful share of players stay inside that bubble.
California produces a ton of DI golfers, but they’re just as likely to leave as the average U.S. player.
Florida is a hotbed for DI golfers… whose home rosters can’t possibly absorb all of them.
Florida’s combination of:
high talent density
attractive weather and facilities
and heavy interest from international players
…means a Florida high school golfer is competing globally for a finite number of “sunshine” roster spots. A lot of that talent spills onto rosters elsewhere in the U.S.
I have yet to speak to a Norwegian junior golfer who doesn’t list Florida on their future college wish-list!
COVERAGE RATE
Remember this graph from the post about the declining U.S.-Born rates in Women’s DI golf?
The blue shaded area is the coverage rate we have in the dataset we’re using when I compare it to the NCAA Participation report. As you can see, the coverage stabilizes around 2010. Let’s therefore zoom in and take a look at freshmen counts from the Big Three since 2010:
We know U.S.-Born rates have declined significantly over the past 20 years, so it’s not surprising to see declining rates of freshmen from most states. Out of the Big Three, Florida is the only state without a negative trend line.
OTHER STATES
Similarly to the men’s side, virtually every state I’ve looked into has had declining number of DI roster spots over the time period we’ve looked at (2005-2025).
In short, I see no particular state single-handedly stand out. The recruiting-landscape has grown more competitive with the globalization of recruiting.
There are likely some local dynamics/trends I’ve missed here though. Curious about a particular state? You can look into your home-state in this way ⬇️
You can use the report to filter for your state of interest on this page of the report:
Use the two-letter abbreviation for the state you would like to filter for, and hit enter.
If you use it, please subscribe to this Substack and share with a few friends and/or on social media. Thank you!
Here’s the link to the report.
Links:
- Men’s DI Golf Rosters 2005-2025 dashboard
- Women’s DI Golf Rosters 2005-2025 dashboard
- The Declining Rate of U.S.-Born Men’s DI Golfers
- Shifts in Height | Division I rosters over the past 20 years 📊
- How can a recruit best get a college coach’s attention? (Recruiting)
Mikkel Bjerch-Andresen
Golf coach, data analyst, writer